Is Virginia More Competitive for Trump Than It Looks?

Could Donald Trump do the unthinkable and flip Virginia?
Some Republicans are growing cautiously optimistic about their chances of taking the swing-turned-blueish state in November, following the first week of early voting in the commonwealth — even if those same Republicans would acknowledge that it remains an outside chance.
Democrats remain on a winning streak in Virginia, at least on the presidential level. They’ve swept every presidential race since President Barack Obama flipped the state blue in 2008, with President Joe Biden carrying it by 10 points in 2020. But Republicans made something of a comeback in 2021, when Republican Glenn Youngkin won the gubernatorial race and conservatives won other statewide offices.
Republicans are hoping to replicate that success in November, though polls suggest Vice President Kamala Harris maintains a lead—albeit by a smaller margin than Biden won the state by four years earlier.
Early voting in Virginia began September 20, making it among the first states to open its polls ahead of the election.
By the end of the day Thursday, 223,998 ballots were cast in Virginia, only marginally fewer than the 226,385 ballots cast at the same time in 2020. But the composition of those ballots shifted since four years prior, according to data from the Virginia Public Access Project (VPAP).
In the first week of early voting, Virginians living in rural, Republican-leaning counties cast far more ballots than they did in the first week of early voting in 2020. At the same time, those living in Democratic counties cast fewer ballots than they did in the first week of early voting four years.
Reading too much into that early data is tricky. Virginia doesn’t have party registration, so there’s no way of knowing whether these ballots were cast by Democrats or Republicans. Furthermore, early trends aren’t set in stone. But it does suggest that Virginia Republicans are enthusiastic about casting their votes for the former president.
Democrats only modestly outpaced Republicans in the first week of Virginia early voting in 2020, but the split grew more drastic throughout October, according to data from VPAP.
David Gordon, the director of The Virginia Project, a Republican PAC, told Newsweek Republican efforts to push conservative voters to go to the polls early can, at least in part, be attributed to why turnout increased in conservative counties.
“Traditionally, Democrats blow out the margins on early vote in-person and mail both, as they have had a greater preference for those voting methods. However, this year Republican committees made a priority to specifically push in-person early voting,” he said.
New Kent County, a rural county near the coast of the Chesapeake Bay that backed Trump by 30 points in 2020, saw the greatest increase in turnout compared to four years ago. As of Thursday, 946 residents had voted; at the same point in 2020, that number was only 391.
Meanwhile, turnout in more Democratic areas in the wealthy Washington, D.C. suburbs of Alexandria, Arlington and Prince Williams County is down from 2020. In Arlington, 5,411 people have voted thus far. In 2020, that number was 8,576, according to VPAP.
Of course, that doesn’t mean voters in these areas won’t turn out closer to the election.
In Prince Williams County, a densely populated suburban county that backed President Biden by more than 26 points in 2020, only one polling place opened so far, with more scheduled to open in October.
Turnout is also down in Loudoun County, a former Republican stronghold that has drifted toward Democrats and handily backed Biden in 2020. Loudoun is something of a bellwether for how suburban counties will vote across the country and will likely receive significant attention on election night, as Virginia is among the first states to report its results.
Fairfax County demonstrates why the early data may not necessarily be indicative of final turnout. Although its numbers on Thursday indicated lower turnout form 2020, it has not reported any of its mail-in ballots.
Mail-in ballots are still expected to break heavily for Democrats, as they did in 2020. Fifty-eight percent of Biden voters did so by mail in 2020, compared to only 32 percent of Trump voters, according to data from the Pew Research Center.
Political scientist and Virginia electoral guru Larry Sabato told Newsweek that he doubts Republicans can actually pull of a win in Virginia this year.
“While upsets are always possible, it is highly probable that Harris will take Virginia. The demographics of the state’s large, likely presidential electorate are clearly tilted to the Democrats. Trump has never been popular in the state, and that hasn’t changed,” he said.
Still, Gordon of the GOP-aligned Virginia Project said turnout for Virginia Republicans is “off the charts,” comparing it to 2021.
“The most striking part of it is all the disaffected voters who are coming back to the GOP. The chronic disconnect between national leadership and base voters caused a great many voters to simply stop voting altogether. Crushing inflation is bringing them back into play,” he said.
VPAP data from 2020 found that Democrats held a modest advantage in the first few days of early voting. On September 26, 2020, Democrats led early voting by about seven points. But once October hit, their advantage grew, outpacing Republicans by 20 points most days.
Jeff Ryer, a spokesperson for Trump’s Virginia operation, told Newsweek the campaign has worked “diligently to ensure an impressive — and winning — performance in Virginia’s early vote.
“Across the commonwealth, we have been priming President Trump’s supporters to turn out in record numbers. The results speak for themselves: Republican voters are turning out to vote early at their highest rate ever,” he said.
Harris holds a polling lead in Virginia, and forecasters view her as a favorite to win the race in November.
FiveThirtyEight’s polling aggregate showed Harris leading by an average of seven points in recent polls.
An Emerson College poll, conducted among 860 likely voters from September 22 to September 24, showed Harris up seven points (53 percent to 46 percent).
Meanwhile, a Morning Consult poll, conducted among 899 likely voters from September 9 to September 18, showed Harris up about seven points (51 percent to 44 percent.
A recent survey from Rasmussen, generally viewed as having a Republican lean, showed the race in Virginia in as being closer, giving Harris only a 3-point lead over Trump (49 percent to 46 percent). That poll puts the race within the margin-of-error.
The Cook Political Report classifies the race as “Likely Democratic,” meaning it is “not considered competitive at this point” but has “the potential to become engaged.”
In 2020, Biden won the state with 54.1 percent of the vote to Trump’s 44 percent. The state was closer in 2016, when former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton carried it with 49.8 percent o the vote, compared to Trump’s 44.4 percent.
Even if Trump isn’t likely to win Virginia, his margin in the state could be a boon to Congressional Republicans’ efforts to hold onto their narrow majority in the House of Representatives.
Virginia has two competitive House races whose results will hinge on turnout—one race in the Seventh District seat, being vacated by Democratic Representative Abigail Spanberger, and another in the Second District held by Representative Jen Kiggans. Biden won both seats in 2020, but both parties are making plays for the districts this cycle.